Who do you draft at 5th overall?

.5 ppr drafting 5th and I can’t decide.

I’ll probably be choosing between Zeke or Kamara (whoever the guy picking fourth doesn’t pick) or Devante Adams.

Also is 2.06 too high for Darren Waller?

I’d go either RB over Davante, hoping for Zeke over Kamara.

I’d also be hoping for a guy like Najee or Ridley in the middle of the second in a half-point over the TE there.

So then would you hope an elite TE is there mid third?

Any pick in the first seven rounds is too high for a TE.

The RBs who have the best chances of being the overall #1 RB at the end of the season are, in order:

Derrick Henry
Ezekiel Elliott
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara

So you should get one of them at pick #5; just take the highest one remaining!

So then who’s the TE target?

Probably Higbee or Fant

Depends on how long you are willing to wait. Higbee would be fine… Gesicki… Engram… Uzomah…

I’d fade Engram.

A lot of this depends on how you play too. Some people want that positional advantage. If that’s you then you are going to have to give up a pick somewhere in the top three rounds. I don’t mind Waller in 2nd half of 2nd, but if N. Harris or someone that will be a high volume back is still there then I think you prioritize that first. If you do give up early draft capital to snag an elite TE then you probably want to draft RBs early and wait a little later at WR as there is more depth there.

I drafted Waller at 2.11 in a snake draft and ended up with Cook and Montgomery as my 1st and 3rd picks. My goal was Waller in early 3rd but I went ahead and went 2nd rd because the player at the turn had kept a RB and drafted a RB in the first so I felt the odds would be there to still get a back I wanted a couple of picks later.

Allergic to top 10 TEs?

When they already injured their calf in preseason yes. Guy has past history of letting those type injuries hang around.

Exactly what “type injuries” are we talking about?

The last news that was publicly available was that he was seeing his doctor today to determine the severity of a calf injury–but we don’t know if it’s a muscle contusion, a strain, a torn ligament, a broken bone, or what.

As usual, the coach’s comments have been vague:

“It leaves a little bit of a different window than it normally would be in the preseason track as far as getting ready for the opener,” he said.

So does that mean a different track for Engram–but he’ll probly still be ready–or a different track for the team–to prepare to play without him?

At this point, I don’t know. And I doubt if you do, either.

But Judge also said, “We’ll have to see where he’s at in terms of how we manage him,” so that leads me to believe he’s talking about Engram himself in terms of a different window of preparation for Week 1.

Injuries suck, but they’re a part of fantasy football. Be prepared to pick up CJ Uzomah, when Engram goes down. But for a guy who has been a top 7 TE every year he has been in the league,* whom you can get basically free (14th round or so even before the injury), he’s a great late option.

*In 2020, the year everything went wrong for the Giants, Engram had the targets (109), receptions (64) and yardage (654) to be in that range again, but he only scored 1 TD. If he had just 5 TDs, he’d have been TE8 in PPR. (Engram averaged 4 TDs per season for his first three years in the league.)

Are you saying that if you are drafting tonight and you have the choice between a similar talent that is known to be healthy that you are still taking Engram?

The guy has a history of lower leg injuries. Sprained knee multiple times. Sprained foot. Not a road I want to chance going back down but for right now there’s red flags and better options. If things change when the news comes out then I will re-evaluate but for right now I’m not risking it as anything other than a ‘stash’ during a draft. He’s just a guy clogging up my bench if he can’t go.

Well I don’t know. What other similar talents (top 10 TEs) do you expect me to be choosing from in the 14th round? The only one I can think of who might go around that range would be Mike Gesicki, and yes, between the two, I might take Gesicki, given the recent injury (although I would have–and have–taken Engram over Gesicki before the injury).

Who else would you like to compare to Engram as a 14th round value?

Well that’s all TEs are anyway. You get one, if you don’t like him, you throw him back and get another. It’s not like investing the same draft capital in Engram as you would invest in a good defense is going to break your team.

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Yeah I like Gesicki, Everett in that range.

Agree on the other .

I don’t like Everett at all. He still has to contend with Will Dissly, and he’s currently listed third on their depth chart behind Dissly and Colby Parkinson. I mean, even if Everett and Dissly kind of shake out to be co-starters, how many crumbs will be left after Metcalf and Lockett are both top 20 WRs?

If this is redraft I’d smash Kelce. Assess your board from there, but likely RB in the 2nd. If Waller is there, I’d consider going all in on those 2 TE with RB in the 3rd. I know it’s not popular, but if you smash that TE position you’ll have strong positional advantage plus one of them is your FLEX.

Likely not popular, but that’s my two cents for redraft.

  • Craig Coffman

There’s a reason unpopular strategies are unpopular–it’s because they don’t work. If they worked, they would be more popular.

I feel like I was overcharged.

Good thing it wasn’t your question.

Glad you still take QB in round 1. Oh, you don’t? That used to be popular until it was shown to be unpopular. Zero RB is also viable…if you’ve heard of it? It all depends on how you craft your draft. Look around for Kelce as early TE this year. While they might not be taking 2TE (which I only said I’d consider), Kelce in the 1st after CMC / Cook are gone is not an unusual idea this year in redraft. The game evolves. Try it.

Also I gave two cents, not charged.

Well congrats then, you’re older than my time. I’ve only been playing since 1994, and I don’t think I’ve EVER seen more than 1 or 2 QBs drafted in the first round–so it’s not all that popular with my generation. Maybe it was popular in the really early days of fantasy football, before people knew what they were doing, but that would be popular because of ignorance, rather than popular because of effectiveness.

If you’ve really been playing that long, you know the game evolves. You’re proving the point of my suggestion. Effectiveness (and positional advantage which was my main point) lead to better decisions.

Firstly, of note, I am not saying RB is a bad idea. From just a max top end points from a single player I get it. But you can fill them in later (round 2 / 3) and still pull value.

Next, I’m not saying for all time ever go TE in round 1. I’m saying in this redraft it makes sense. You have to play at least 1 TE in most leagues and the drop-off at the position is vast. Those prayer guys are there at every position. That’s not uncommon. But RB has a better curve from the top into the RB2/3 that you can build that way. The positional advantage of Kelce for this year is potentially big.

I’m attaching a screen shot of data from Fantasy Pros for HPPR 2016-2020.

4 of the last 5 years he was TE1, and the other year he missed by .8 in HPPR.
4 of the last 4 years he would have been one of the WR1s (green cells)
3 of the last 4 years he would have been one of the RB1s (green cells)
If you add in average points he scored in 2019 when Mahomes missed a game, he’d have 4 of 4 as RB1 and even higher in WR ranks (yellow cells)

What you do not see is a pattern of repeat top-end RB and most of them are not year after year. You are hoping that 1 of the 6 or so you listed are at the top when the season ends. And even then you really need the RB1-3 to have a massive points advantage. Refer to the image for point scoring. Here’s how that worked for the Top 6 at RB and WR the past 5 years.

RB Top 6
Kamara, Elliot x3
Henry, Cook, A Jones, CMC, Gurley x2
Mopp, Barkley, Ekeler x1

WR Top 6
Hopkins, Julio x4
Thomas, AB x3
Adams, Hill x2

While the RBs available at 1.05 could be hits, there is risk of volatility. Nothing is a lock, yet Kelce is very likely to repeat as TE1. Meanwhile, RB12 normally is outscoring TE2. Taking Kelce and then RB gives you a strong group score and a massive positional advantage. I lumped in Waller because I see LVR behaving similar to last year and that should put him in upper-end points. But I did not say you definitely should.

Let us assume we knew who to pick at RB5 in 2020 and Evan Engram (you mentioned liking) to see how it worked. I’ll look at Carson, a RB who went late 2nd early 3rd (Fantasy Football Calculator) and finished RB17…both criteria fit a reasonable round 2 selection.

You: A Jones (235.4) + Engram (109.5) = 344.9
Me: Kelce (260.3) + Carson (169.3) = 429.6

Now, that means we’d both have to know those picks and the draft would have had to go ALL RB until my pick at 2.07. Not likely, but for example purposes. That decision gives me a 60 point advantage. But I’m comparing my first two against your first plus where Engram went, and he seemed to go 7.03 or pick 77 (Fantasy Football Calculator). Boyd or Gibson went after Engram in the 7th (again, FF Calc), so I’ll use both those to compare.

You: A Jones (235.4) + Carson (169.3) + Engram (109.5) = 514.2
Me: Kelce (260.3) + Carson (169.3) + Boyd (153.1) = 582.7
Me: Kelce (260.3) + Carson (169.3) + Gibson (184.2) = 613.8

Again, an advantage especially if I were lucky enough to grab Gibson. TBF I’d have gone Boyd over Gibson at that spot. These are hindsight so it does not mean it will work. But it’s not super weird for redraft. You are welcome to think my suggestion was “overcharged” but it was not without support of FF finishes the past 5 years.

  • Craig Coffman