Who has the best upside ?!

So imagine this , You have the #6 in the draft of 12 teams, FULL PPR
You keep Kareem hunt at round 2 so now it leaves you with a choice at number 6 in round 1
Deandre Hopkins or Alvin Kamara AND WHY PLEASE HELP!!

I would go Hopkins. He has been consistently at the top of WR for a couple years now, has Deshaun Watson back as his qb, and WR value goes up in PPR leagues.

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I go Kamara, because there is no guarantee that HOU repeats what they did last year. In fact, some are projecting HOU to be worse.

For Kamara, you know he will be #1 with Ingram gone. Why not dominate the league from Day 1?

Full PPR 2017 >>

Kamara (320.4 pts) on 120 carries, 82 receptions on 100 tgts and 13 total TDs
Nuke ( 309.8 pts) on 96 receptions on 176 tgts and 13 total TDs.

(that’s what I found on ESPN)

The question is: How repeatable are these numbers?

NUKE certainly could have a repeat showing, provided a healthy QB. Hard to see him improving on his 2017 campaign in any significant way, though. Maybe he catches a few more balls on roughly the same target count, but it’s safer to assume he’ll have 10TDs than repeat his 13 from last year… I’d argue there’s no material change for Houston’s offense. If anything I’d expect some regression from their QB in his sophomore season as other teams have had an offseason to watch tape and scheme. Summary: There’s a decent chance for similar numbers to 2017 for Nuke, but only a tiny opportunity for upside.

KAMARA had a dream rookie season. But the Saints O has had a significant change: Ingram is out for Q1 of the season. (first 1/3 of the fantasy season). Which should mean significantly more looks for Kamara. (I’d bet 5 more looks (carries + targets) per game. And that’s assuming they pick up a guy like DeMarco to fill in. If it’s only Kamara, it could be more like 7+.) Regardless, Brees should be running the same game as last year. Summary: Like Nuke, Kamara has a good chance of a repeat season… but unlike Nuke, the chance for upside with Kamara is also pretty darn good.

@Sidehatch There’s no guarantee that NO repeats what they did last year either. How can you guarantee Kamara will get all the touches Ingram leaves on the table for the first 4 weeks? You can’t and the likely scenario is the Saints will bring in another back to fill Ingram’s void. Kamara is great, but I don’t see his usage changing all too much and more than likely going to have TD rate regression.

I’d be weary of Kamara. His rookie year was ridiculous and it set super high expectations for him in year 2. I’d take Hopkins based on his WR1 finishes 2 of the last 3 years. 2016 was a super down year for Hopkins’ standards, but the entire offense was bad that year (mostly because of Osweiler, but that’s another subject). Houston should be at full strength at the start of the season and even if Deshaun Watson isn’t ready to go week 1, you’ve seen Hopkins is more than capable with the backup QB.

Hopkins has consistently been good with a variety of QBs over the past couple years. Tom Savage to Brock Osweiler and Deshaun Watson, yet he has still been a top wr.

How can Houston be at full strength without Watson? They averaged 30+ ppg with him, and 13 ppg without him? They won 1 game without him.

The Saints are clearly a title contender, and have gone all in on offense. Kamara and Brees are the centerpieces of that offense.

Hopkins is the centerpiece of a team that might see its head coach get fired midway through the season. I like Hopkins, but let’s face it - Watson had an unreal first season, and their offensive line only got worse during the offseason. Now you are banking on Watson coming back healthy and playing the exact same level?

Kamara all day.

Definitely Hopkins for me. Not that close.

Hopkins has consistency obviously because he’s been in the NFL for a few years now and you know you’re gonna get one of the top wrs but as far as best upside I would go with kamara. He was a stud in his rookie year and now Ingram is out for the first 4 weeks? He could possibly get more looks/touches on a weekly basis. Truth is we don’t know what the saints are gonna do at the rb position but as for now I think kamara has the higher ceiling.

Firstly, ALL of this is assuming no injury since that is not predictable. If it were me, I would lean Kamara as I personally think there is more depth at WR, and I am not personally sold on Hunt this year. But IMHO all of those guys have risk. Of all people / reasons already discussed in this thread, they all (Hunt / Kamara / Hopkins / Watson) have high bars from last year and many factors to overcome this year if they hope to repeat. With no easy path to repeated success, it is likely not all of them will better their lot this season. Obviously it is really hard to predict who will / not achieve in a season, so I would go Kamara and swing for the fences in a PPR league.

You can still lean into WR in round 3-5 and get high volume PPR guys, but you have RB potential stacked for both ground and air.

My question is why OBJ is not talked about? I have a hard time understanding why he is jumped by Hopkins on nearly every site. Now, I am all in on OBJ so I am biased, but he is off the charts and his situation just got better with Barkley. If I am looking Kamara or wide receiver name, I would put OBJ there. Yes, he is coming off an injury, but the NYG just got better (at least on paper) offensively. Career he at least pacing Hopkins including last year when he only played 4 games. If he had the full season, the stats would likely not even be close.

Hopkins Career: 5 Years | REC 82.6 | YDS 1173 | Avg YPR 14.2 | TD 7.2

OBJ Career: 4 Years | REC 78.25 | YDS 1106 | Avg YPR 14.1 | TD 9.5

Again, those numbers are including last season of only 4 games. How he has fallen is beyond me, and I think he should return to his unbelievable norm this season.

If it were me, I would still likely go Kamara at that spot, but I would absolutely roll OBJ over Hopkins if you instead want to take WR.

I hope this helps in some way!