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Who should I draft with the 2nd pick? 14-team 3-Keeper league


#1

I have the second pick in the upcoming draft, and I already know the guy in our league who picks 1st is taking Leonard Fournette.

A few things about the league:

  • Non-PPR
  • 1 point per 20 yards (not 10 yards)
  • 6 points for all TDs
  • 3 WR, 2 RB, NO FLEX

As you can see from the scoring system, it’s less dependent on yards and more dependent on TDs.

Here are my 3 Keepers:

Jordan Howard
Michael Thomas
DeAndre Hopkins

My thoughts:

Some notable names that will be on the board are Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, then all the rookies. The two big names I’m thinking about are Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook, but even after that, Corey Davis and Sammy Watkins are also tempting.

Out of the following, who would you take with this pick?

  • Joe Mixon
  • Dalvin Cook
  • Sammy Watkins
  • Keenan Allen
  • Corey Davis
  • John Ross

Any of the other rookies? Joe Williams, Samaje Perine, etc?


#2

I’d take Joe Mixon. Even though Hill and Bernard are still there (sort of), he is the most talented back on the team and should be the feature. If you’re going to go WR I’d take Watkins over Allen, but first choice would be Joe Mixon.


#3

Without a doubt Watkins would be first here. In this league format, TDs are king. Watkins has that TD potential that Allen doesn’t quite have and you have to start 3 WRs, meaning having more depth at that position will pay off through the year.

After that, I’d rank them Mixon, Cook, Allen.


#4

Joe Mixon in my book. I think that long term, he can be an excellent keeper, and I’ll take his upside over Sammy Watkins, who can never seem to stay on the field. Sorry @JasonFFL but I don’t think this one is as clear cut as one might think. I like his wide receivers right now and would take the flier on Joe Mixon, especially knowing his potential long term value.


#5

I am not sure the elephant in the thread has been discussed here, TDs are king! EDIT: Just read @JasonFFL said this exact thing.

Mixon = Hill gets the GL carries in Cinn, and has no reason to lose that job.
Cook = Murray will get the GL carries in Min.
Allen = If they throw for TDs it will be to the TEs, who were 2nd and 4th in ten zone TD conversion rate last season, for TEs and WRs.
Davis = The Titans have two other, better, end zone receiving options.
John Ross = They have three other, better, end zone receiving options.

Sammy Watkins = Taylor threw 17 TDs last year and I expect that number to go up. Who will catch these balls if not Watkins?


#6

I agree with most of what you’re saying Guinness, and you’re right: TDs are King in this league!

That said, I feel a little differently about Mixon. I’ve heard scouts and analysts say he was the most effective RZ RB in college football when he started, and Jeremy Hill (even for as much work as he got) wasn’t that effective.

For example, here is the breakdown of Hill’s 1st-and-Goal plays on the 1st-5th yard lines:

Total attempts = 21

  • Touchdowns = 6
  • Stopped short = 15
  • 1 yard gain = 1
  • No gain = 6
  • Lost yards = 2

The numbers that stick out aren’t the total touchdowns, but the 1, 0, -1, and -2 yard gains he had in the RZ. From the moment Mixon was drafted, I felt like Cincinnati drafted him to supplant Hill and get him out the door ASAP. Hill is used as a battering ram in the RZ, but he’s not a very good one because his skillset is fairly limited. Whereas Mixon can make people miss, bounce out of the A gap after committing (did that a lot at OU), and has much more burst.

What do you think? I’ll admit that I’m leaning towards Mixon, but I want to make sure my decision makes sense.


#7

Let me be clear, I love Mixon, he is obviously the future in that backfield.

However, with Gio out, Mixon is needed as the change of pace back. So when I started looking at the efficiency metrics to make my Hill argument I was a little surprised.
image
With 2015 numbers he would have been 7th across the board, but that seems to be the odd year out. I think he is top 15 in the NFL for goal line efficiency. That is less than I had thought it would be.

After looking at these numbers, maybe wait and see how Cinn is using them in preseason games if you can. If not, it is a risk, but could have high rewards. I am not sure him or Watkins now…


#8

@Guinnessi think an argument can be made for both; just the fact that Marvin Lewis drafted Moxon and was gushing about him, all while being a coach that rarely praises rookies, leads me to believe that Hill and Gio will be taking a major backseat to Mixon, who is clearly the future of this offense (along with Green).


#9

My one question is about when Mixon takes over. Could be week 1, who knows. I just know he is being drafted as if it is week 1.