I’m looking for a little advice. My league drafts next Tuesday and I am torn. I kept Lev Bell on my bench all last year just so I would have the option of keeping him, but he ended up at the Jets and I don’t trust that O-Line. OBJ depends on if Baker can stay consistent, but he may be money. And I don’t want to wander through the TE desert without Ertz. He was my rock last year.
Help me Obi Wan, you’re my only hope.
I expect regression from Ertz. A lot of that production came because Alshon was hurt, Agholor was not himself, there was no deep threat because Torrey Smith had moved on and Mike Wallace got hurt, and there was no stability at RB (Sproles and Clement both hurt, Ajayi out by week 4 or 5; they were down to Smallwood and Josh Adams). Plus, another year in the Eagles offense means that Goedert is going to get his. Think about this; When Ertz was drafted in 2013, Brent Celek was the same age that Ertz was when the Eagles drafted Goedert. In other words, 2018 might’ve been the peak for Ertz.
Conventional wisdom would tell you to go with OBJ. And that’s probably what you should end up doing.
But I think you should consider tihs:
OBJ is volatile, and so is Baker (and now it’s looking like Freddie Kitchens is, too). Sure, all that talent will no doubt have their moments, but that locker room could be a landmine by game 8. Plus, OBJ misses games every year. He’s got the highest ceiling of the three, but for how long will the talent override the knuckleheadedness in that locker room?
Speaking of knucklheads, that’s what you’ve got in Lev Bell, but he’s not as big a diva as OBJ. They both have chips on their shoulders, and that’s always good for fantasy, but Lev stays healthier, is guaranteed opportunity and I think Darnold takes a step forward this year and keeps defenses honest and bell.
So I might actually hold my nose and keep Lev. I know he’s a Jet, but something about that Browns situation gives me pause…
I would agree with saturnismine analogy and breakdown of the options presented on who to keep. I wanted to add my 2 cents as well that you may find helpful to cater to your preference and style of FF GM. I want to forewarn muy advice is depending on your league scoring system and your confidence in grabbing late round depth ( I will assume that the fact that you are posting on this site means you are at minimum a savvy FF player). I would say that in a PPR format, Bell is your safe keeper, OBJ is your swing for the fence and pray he doesnt somehow get hurt after a wild bat-flip celebration catastrophe, and Ertz is your +6 pt advantage in 9 of the 16 weeks over your opponent a the TE position.
Like many FF players on this site, I feel that it is easier to mask what you miss not having Ertz with playing the match up game using serviceable mid-tier guys, versus trying to find 2 low end RB players to make up for not having a RB1 in Bell, and the same thing goes for OBJ.
My case for Bell over OBJ is 3 fold.
1.) Obvious Health concerns throughout his very short career
so far. Maybe this is the year he stays healthy/out of
trouble but if I don have to take the risk, why do it?
2.) He is dependent on Bakers success. All looks well and
good now, but if the line doesnt protect or Baker goes
down, then what?
3.) I am always aware of targets when it comes to WR. I love
the guys that are top options on a team. But it is very
frustrating sometimes when there are so many mouths to
feed and it can feel like a hit or miss week sometimes. Even
if OBJ gets a decent stat line like 7/80 but chubb steals goal
line work or Njoku, or Baker runs one in…etc.
I know Bell is on a new team with a new system that we havent seen with him, but the Bottom line is Bell does not come with the same risks as the other 2 and he is not fighting anyone for touches, and he does not have the injury concern. Plus he is coming in fresh with a year off and something to prove. Bell has the higher floor, and similar if not the same ceiling.
Hope this helps 
Thank you! This is solid advice. I still have a few days to think it through. Another hang up I have with Bell is I drafted him in the first round last year before all the hold out drama (part of the reason we’re drafting late this year). So If I keep him, he’s my first round pick. If I end drafting in an early spot, I might want to keep OBJ at my third round pick or Ertz at the my 5th.
I’m with the others… Bell, Depending on your draft position and league scoring. If you’re drafting early you can keep OBJ and grab 1 of the stud 3. This would give you some room to maneuver at the 2/3 turn.
Otherwise Bell is solid minimizing risk.