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Who to Keep OB/JJ/JH?


#1

Hi there, Im in a re-draft standard 1 keeper 10 teams league and somehow I end the season (after some trades) with OBjr, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson and Jordan Howard. According with our rules in order to keep our stud we should give back the round pick where this player was drafted (no matter who draft it).

The draft round values are:

Odell - 1st round
Julio - 1st round
Jordy - 3rd round
Howard - waivers = 8th round

I won my league (thanks FFballers) and I will be the 10th pick in a snake format. Please let me know your opinion brothers and sisters:

1.- Should I keep Odell or Julio with the 1.10 pick and go for Howard/Devonta/Demarco with the 2.1? or
2.- Should I keep Howard for almost free and look to bring home (with the 1.10 and 2.1 picks) someone in the range of Jordy, Devonta, DeMarco, Gordon, Lynch, Fournette,etc?
3.- or maybe even a possibility keep Jordy and go for something available like before with the 1.10, 2.1 and 4.1?

Right now Im kind of deciding to keep OBjr and build something around him with the hope of getting a 2nd tier RB with the 2.1 pick. Would like to know your opinion guys.

cheers


#2

you sir, are in the best kind of pickle. because you cant go wrong here. but i lean towards julio. sure, OBJ is younger and on a keeper, you want to keep the guy who will be there for a while. but you also want production. the thing about OBJ that worries me is, who is going to throw to him next? manning is out the door soon (in my opinion). so who throws to him? an alex smith type? well there goes all of his boom potential. then the other 2, jordy is 32 which is 4 more years than even julio. and howard is not a lock for big time production. he came out and killed it, but now his team is even weaker than before. but man… that 8th round pick looks more and more delicious the more i look at it. screw it im saying toss up on julio and howard. i still lean julio because you are locked in for fantastic production for the next 4 years, and really damn good for another 2-4. hell maybe even longer, he could pull a jerry rice for all i know.


#3

Man. That’s an embarrassment of riches. Well done last season!

I wouldn’t worry too much about planning past this next season – especially with it being a single keeper league. As you already see from last year’s squad, you’ll probably have another 3 or 4 guys to choose between next year.

So… Can you trade draft picks? If so, I’d see if you could unload Odell or Julio to another team. That pays off doubly as that takes away another 1st round pick ahead of yours, and you’re getting more draft capital. (Or you do the varsity move of trading Julio/OBJ and the 1.10 for the 1.05 (or so). Then you could keep Howard and maybe still get one of those two receivers.

Otherwise… I find it tough to keep a guy for just a few picks worth of value. With only 10 teams in your league (and therefore 10 keepers), the draft pool won’t be too much more shallow than a standard redraft. So I want to get huge value out of whomever my one keep is. I’m talking several rounds worth of value, not just several picks worth. Getting a Top 15 overall guy in Howard (who is roughly RB #8) fits that bill. That’s tremendous awesome fantastic value.


#4

Wow! I’d go Jordan Howard in the 8th round! He scored 4 less points than OBJ and played far fewer games.


#5

I agree with Boston… .keep Howard for free and pick up 2 great picks at the 1.10 and the turn… easy decision.

From the looks of things, you may have a great shot at picking up excellent talent for free again.
Congrats on your #footclantitle


#6

Thanks Buster, great feedback and regarding the 8th round for Howard… I know! that’s why I can’t totally decide yet (and this issue have being for months in my head ha).

Regarding the Odell vs Julio comparison, I will mention as biggest cons of Odell is that problem that comes every time the rival defender get under his skin (not so difficult actually) and what you just point about Eli being just throwing picks everywhere and eventually leaving us with god knows what there in NYG. Julio in the other side just kind of worries my about that foot injury that required surgery and a little bit of a worry the Shanahan-Sarkissian scenario.

I’m kind of confident that if I choose as a keep either Julio or Odell I could end taking Howard with that 2.01 pick, but with Howard I can maybe aspire to Jordy as the best chance for WR and still 2 second tier RB’s… Man you really make me think about keeping Julio again ha, maybe is indeed the best choice


#7

Senor ButterFace thanks man, we have no trade of draft picks in this league but like you said I’m totally considering Julio and Odell not only as a “stud starter” but as a potential “valuable trade-asset” in the case I need to play my cards. In the case that I keep Howard I will not have that top 4 in his position player anymore so that’s one of the arguments that keeps me from going totally with the Howard case.

Putting this scenario in other words:

-with Howard I’m aiming to end the 1st round with 3 players of great value (Howard plus 2 of this DeMarco- Devonta / Jordy / Gordon / Lynch / Dez / Michael Thomas / T.Y. )

-taking one of the WRs Im aiming to end the first round with a WR top4 plus a 2nd tier RB or WR… and still have a great trade value with the name of this WR top4 in case my team doesnt look good at the end of the draft.

What do you think about it brother?


#8

Thanks Boston, should I have in your opinion any worries about Howard making “a Gurley” in the second year? what do you think about the bears with their actual roster including a rookie QB? Hopefully I can get a RB with some “Hyde-ish scenario” that still payback enough to be a good keeper this season


#9

thanks dude! hopefully can bring that belt back home this year


#10

You know whats funny about julio? He always has a foot injury. And his owners are always sweating every week like, “aww man julio didnt practice twice this week shit is he going to make it?” And what does he do every week? He plays lol. Although your idea of keeping howard and taking 2 big guys at the turn sounds awful nice too.


#11

This question is so tricky it should be on the show! @JasonFFL


#12

As many have stated before, this is a win/win/win/win situation. I would probably go Howard for free, and grab some studs at the turn.


#13

I get your thinking. I think your team will be in good shape with whatever direction you go. Just looking at the scenarios, my bet is you’re going to end up being happier with your draft if you go with Howard and are guaranteed any two of those guys listed.

– Crazy to think that by the time the 2.01 pick is made you could have two big name RB1s and a guy like Jordy on your squad. Already!

– Exactly which of those guys listed you’d end up with would be a matter of availability and preference, but you could even have 3 top 10 RBs by the time the 11th pick in the draft is made! That’s amazing. If you went that route, then you could spend the next several rounds loading up on WR2s (with upside) while your leaguemates are scrambling to fill their vacant RB spots with low-end RB2s.

– My only thought on keeping Julio/OBJ with the thought of trading them is that it’s hard to rely on a future trade. Trades always have a chance to turn out great… but they’re hard to predict or rely on.


#14

good to know that my conflict was real ha, so in your opinion Howard plus whatever I can get sounds actually better that keeping Julio? But that “1st round should be a for sure thing” line just continue bouncing inside my head…


#15

Or at least know his opinion here in the forum, from the 3 main ballers Jason is the one that usually I share opinion the most of the times, even in ranking players


#16

Yup. Ideally, whomever we draft in the first round should both be the Elite of the Elite… and as reliable as possible.

Then again, I think several of the first (and early 2nd) round ADP guys from last season underperformed by a significant amount. (Gurley, AP, Allen Robinson, Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall…)

That being the case, my suggestion is to focus on quantity of top talent rather than keying in on one elite player. Sure Julio and OBJ are projected as Top 3 WRs… but they both have concerns (injury, regression, Eli getting old) that could severely hurt their payoff.

Instead, if you pass on them and go with Howard, you’ll likely have 3 Projected Top 15 guys on your team by the 11th pick in the draft – your keeper, the 1.10, and the 2.01. That’s one extra Top Flight player, which is a 50% bonus over the other scenario where you keep either OBJ or Julio. Gotta go this route. Better odds.


#17

i agree its probably the best route this year, your math is a little off. you gotta remember everyone will have keepers as well. so you will have 3 guys that are in the top 21. not that it makes a huge difference. but, you also need to plan for the future in a keeper. so i usually ask this question… who would i rather have for 5 years? its a tough question but its the one that has gotten me through some tough spots. anyway thats just my 2 cents.


#18

Yep. Top 21 is the guaranteed numbers in this scenario. (I was assuming a few lopsided teams would/could leave some extra talent available in the draft.)


#19

Thats a fair point. I withdraw mu criticism good sir.