If you could chose between Jordy, AJ, or Evans… which one would you pair with Gordon and why?
I would go AJ. He was on a blistering pace last year and even though Ross is there, I believe AJ will be a target monster. AJ, in my opinion, is the best actual receiver in this group. Too many Mike Evans koolaid drinkers out there for me. I am in the minority with Evans but in my eyes it goes AJ, Jordy, Evans.
Eifert, Boyd, and Ross are all going to compliment exactly who AJ Green is, a sure handed volume outside WR. Not to mention if Mixon is half as good as his hype train then AJ could have even more space to work.
I would go AJ. I think he has the lowest floor IF they are all healthy for 16 games. And I look to minimize risk early on. There is also a thread for these same 3 receivers that someone posted to reference for more insights.
I’m right there with you on Evans but I’ve been seeing him higher and higher as more “experts” release their rankings… Hell I’ve been seeing him listed as WR 3 in some… started to make me second guess myself a little bit… and @ccramer did you mean he has the highest floor? And yeah I’m looking for the safest option to pair with Gordon… the sky is the limit on his upside… its really just his injury risk… either way I can always move him mid season assuming the Jets (week 16 match up) are still nasty against the run this year.
HAHAHA yes. Was having an internal discussion with myself while I was typing. HIGHEST FLOOR. However probably the lowest ceiling out of the 3.
Evans is the worst technical receiver of the group, but even though Jordy had all those TDs, Evans is a better Red Zone receiver. Not by a small amount either. Inside the 10 Jordy scores on 60% of his targets, which is really good, the 3rd best in the league for WRs actually. Well Mike Evans is the 2nd with a touchdown on 71% of his targets inside the 10. Tampa’s offense will be improved, and will score more TDs this season.
AJ’s pace was great for yards, he averaged 10 targets per game and 6.6 receptions. That paces him at 1542 yards on 106 receptions and 6 or 7 TDs. However, in PPR formats both other receivers would have outscored him.
My recommendation is Mike Evans, he doesn’t need that many attempts to score a lot of TDs, and consistently gets solid yards. I think he has the highest chance to get 1000+ yards and double digit TDs.
Reasons Evans is SLIGHTLY higher for me:
Jordy = Injury risk
AJ = He just doesn’t get used as much.
As a Buccaneers fan… I’m going to say Jordy.
I think the question is one of confidence, when you ask about pairing up these receivers with Melvin. Of course, all three of these receivers are rock stars; each of them has a clear path to being a high-upside WR1. So then it’s a matter of what their downside is:
AJ Green… gets to play with one of the worst offensive lines in football. In their AFC Preview, the Ballers argued this didn’t matter. It matters. Losing two ProBowl O-Line men materially changes what you can do on offense. Pressure and sacks are drive killers. And it’s a lot easier for your QB to get hurt when he’s getting hit all the time. The argument has been “Look how great all these weapons were in 2015!” Well, that O-Line was ranked about 8th in the league that year. Their rank is 31st going into 2017. That is a BIG opportunity for downside. So I’m passing on AJG in this scenario.
Michael Evans…more in depth here, but basically Evans is a sure-fire high floor, high ceiling guy. Just as the argument was made that John Ross should help keep cornerbacks honest and free up AJG, so should Tampa’s new weapons do for Evans. Yes, they’ll undoubtedly cut into his targets (those were completely unsustainable), but if his fewer targets are easier to catch (ie. less double coverage), then this seems to be a net even for Evans. But again, this offense falls victim to a poopy O-Line which is evident in Jameis’s statistics being flat-to-down from 2015 to 2016. And things haven’t improved. That’ll continue to cap what this offense can accomplish.
Jordy Nelson… Has a Top 3 QB who is crazy accurate and has plenty of other options to toss the ball to… yet still delivers the ball consistently to his #1 guy. Jordy showed no lingering effects from his 2015 injury (which has yet to be seen with AJG’s hammy), and his consistency charts didn’t give any evidence that his age matters yet. (His second half of the season was ridiculous.) If the Packers do improve their running game, it’ll only further free up Nelson.
TL,DR – All three have an upside of being a WR1+. Jordy has the easiest path to a high floor though courtesy of Aaron Rodgers, by far the best O-Line of the three teams, and a discount double check.
Number 1 pick
I like what @Guinness is saying.
Guys in my league are crazy for Jordy, to the point that I’ve not put much time into researching him only because I know his auction value is going to be much higher than what I’d be willing to pay. I simply let the other guys fight it out and overpay for him.
That being said - I like Evans over AJ. Main point of difference to me: Red Zone.
Sure, DeSean Jackson will take a handful of targets from Evans, but those targets will be from 20+ yards out where he has room to use his speed to get open. Evans has the size to win a jump ball when the defense is crowed inside the 20.
Using that same logic, and adding the Bengals weak O-line - Green won’t necessarily have the time or the room to fire all cylinders and burn his opponent inside the 20. Eifert should be back to 100% and has proven to be a Red Zone ball hog.
I am confused about the pairing with Gordon part. Do you have Gordon and all three of these guys and are looking to trade? Are you trying to get one of these guys with Gordon in a trade? Or are you simply talking draft here? If you’re just building your team, go after the best available in each position. Your RB shouldn’t effect which WR you go after, unless you’re considering two guys on the same team.
I think he is keeping Gordon and will have the chance to draft one of these three guys.
Honestly nobody has said anything wrong here. This is like pro-level nit picking. All three of these guys finish top 10 WRs without injury.
I’m 9th pick in a 10 team league… I know all my leaguemates well enough to know for sure the first 6 picks are going to be Johnson, Bell, Brown, Zeke, McCoy, and Freeman (these guys are going super RB heavy after last year even though we’re converting our league to 1/2 ppr)… after that the next 2 picks will almost certainly be Julio and OBJ since I know both of those guys hate Gordon… so from the 9th spot I know I’ll get Gordon and the choice of at least 2 of the guys I listed… I view Gordon as a risky play with his injury history and the regression in workload and TD’s that is bound to come his way this year… for me, my first 2 draft picks do affect each other… if my first round pick is a risky, high ceiling guy… then I try to grab a guy with a higher floor in the 2nd round… I’ve also been toying with the idea of taking 2 of those guys I listed… but I don’t like the RB’s available in the late 3rd early 4th and there’s always at least 2 WRs with WR1 upside in that spot…
Basically I was just asking, “If you had to pair one of these guys with a risky RB with bust potential, who would it be?” And all of the advice was great from everyone. I think I’m settled on Evans.
Oh…Evans for me then, but I question your Gordon choice. I would personally take Murray/Howard/Green/Evans over Gordon. I don’t have faith in his TDs, and without those he isn’t that good. If Freeman or one of the WRs makes it to you, I would go that way.
My recommendation is to take another option in the 1st. Maybe even go Murray for 1.09 and Howard for 2.02. Then supplement high upside receivers later. Like Watkins, Allen, Hopkins, Robinson, Crabtree, and Bryant. One of them becomes a WR1 and you have positional advantage without sacrificing on WR depth.
Well Murray was up for consideration and when I first found out my draft position I was dead set on Howard at the 2.02… I was really low on Gordon coming off of last season. But the more I look into it the better I feel about Gordon’s ranking… I’ve read his YPC can be really deceiving because of his ridiculous amount of carries inside the 10… apparently he averaged ~4.5ypc between the 20s… but only ~2ypc inside the RZ where he got a lot of work… I agree about his TD’s regressing this year… but I also think his efficiency increases. Since he’s the only show in town he’s bound to have a good amount of receptions as well which should give him a relatively safe floor barring injury. Murray will still be the #1 there but I feel like he won’t only be losing at least a little work to Henry, but the Titans moves have clearly been to put more weapons around Mariota… I don’t think there will be any kind of HUGE swing in favor of the pass game but I definitely think they carry the ball less this year. And the biggest concern is… what happens if Murray gets like a sprain that benches him for 2 weeks, and Henry comes in and dominates? Do they just pull Henry and let Murray have his job back or do they move to a more balanced 50/50 split… I just don’t see Murray exceeding his value at that spot. As for Howard… I do really like him and think he’ll have a good year despite the “sophomore slump” concerns… I like him far more than Ajayi for sure. Obviously Howard is a great runner to accomplish what he did… He’s a North/South runner with great vision behind a great O-Line… but he isn’t a freak athlete or anything like that and I just don’t see the Bears offense being good enough to produce an elite top 3 RB… if I were to go RB RB it would probably be Gordon then Howard. Which is something I have been toying with… On NFL I’ve actually had Baldwin and Cooper fall to me in the 3rd and I think if I let the big WRs slide early that increases those odds… I just don’t want to sleep on high end WRs or RBs who catch passes this year since it’s my first time doing half PPR.
I am a huge Howard fan, I like him because he made his numbers through touch efficiency (7th for YPC). That is a lot more reliable than TDs.
I don’t feel good about Gordon’s rankings. He ranked 13th in the red zone, 11th in the ten zone, and 12th at the goal line as far as TD efficiency. Those aren’t bad metrics, but they aren’t first round numbers considering he isn’t that good between the 20s. He ranked 32nd among RBs last year in YPC, but he was 8th in YPR.
I will leave you with this, Gordon had 250 carries last year, and Murray had 290. Gordon had 41 receptions, and Murray had 53. If the Titans run a 60/40 split, Murray still has the same amount of touches as Gordon.
Well to be fair Gordon’s touches came in 12 games lol… on a touch per game basis Gordon was tied with David Johnson if you take out the games where they each went down. He out-touched Murray by almost 5 per game. I fully expect Gordon’s touch total to go down this year with the teams new and returning weapons… however, the improvements to the line and the probability that he’ll be taking less carries against goal line defenses should certainly help his efficiency… Like I said his low YPC could really be attributed to bad O-Line play and an abundance of carries near the goal line. As for Murray, I won’t argue that Gordon is more talented because he isn’t… but I expect Murray’s total touches to go down even more so than Gordon’s… I expect him to lose more carries to Henry, and I expect the Titans to just run less in general… and It’s not like Murray was dealing with Henry vulturing the valuable carries last year… weeks 1-13 Henry had 2 TDs… 14-17 he had 3… if the team picks up the split they were running at the end of the year after Murray had been banged up then it’s concerning to me. Not necessarily against Murray’s floor but it certainly eats into his ceiling… I think no matter what Murray will finish as an RB1 (barring injury of course)… the “less touches = higher efficiency” goes both ways… I just view Murray as the safe floor with capped upside guy… and Gordon as the guy who could finish as a top 3 RB or end up a bust… I mean reguardless, Gordon should get enough work in order to be a high end RB2 no matter what (barring injury)… so I don’t think either pick will tank my team… honestly though, my plan was to hit on some mid-late RBs too so I can move Gordon for a stud WR closer towards the playoffs lol… by week 5 the guys who missed on their RBs and who are struggling start to panic and will overpay for a decent RB… All that being said I’ve listened to the advice and Murray went from a non-consideration at the 9 spot to a 40% chance I may draft him over Gordon lol. Sorry for the long responses by the way… I tried to shorten it
lol No worries, good thoughts.