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Who won this Gurley trade?


#1

I’m in a .5 ppr, 12 man dynasty league. This is a trade I made. Who do you think won?

I get: David Johnson, Julian Edelman, 1.03, 2020 2nd

I give: Todd Gurley, 1.09


#2

I think Gurley is slightly better than Johnson, but the draft picks and Edelman make this a great trade for you


#3

I think you came out on top. DJ is going to come back in full force. More value and draft picks. Win win!


#4

I’d say you won. I think DJ will come back strong and probably have a better season than Gurley. At least i hope because he’s on my dynasty team too…


#5

DJ side, in a landslide.


#6

I would say that you won that trade. While Gurley is superior IMO to Johnson, you get some great draft picks and a solid wr.


#7

The trade is basically Your 1.09 for Edelman, 1.03, and 2020 2nd. That dude a bafoon for doing that.

This is not even a close trade in any way. You completely took him for a ride. This guy had some major recency bias on both these players. Gurley probably isn’t as dominant as he was last year, but he could be I guess. DJ is the same caliber of player.

This trade might have been closer if you received Duke Johnson back instead of David Johnson. He obviously would have won that trade, but that’s how far off this trade is.


#8

I’d take it a step further and say that, in a vacuum, DJ is a better player, though obviously Gurley is likely in the better situation.


#9

being in this league i can give a bit more depth on why this trade isnt as bad as it might look. its a lot more even than at first look.

giving up edelman doesnt hurt owner 1, as he has plenty of younger options and elite WRs to work without him. in a vaccum DJ is better, but older and has more injuries to his name. he is also on a pretty bad team. so that works out better for the gurley side. 3 years younger means 3 more years of production than DJ. that alone makes it worth while for gurley side.

now here is why by the books you still won. the picks are heavily in your favor. you move up 6 spots, and get a second rounder. granted its years from now but thats still value down the road.

all that being said, you still won the trade right now. in a few years that may change drastically but if you are in win now mode (which you should be every year haha) this works out better for you.


#10

You always have the best responses @BusterD. Thanks for giving more context. You said it better than I could’ve.


#11

There’s not much about this trade that can be explained or justified by league or team circumstances. The trade is a bad trade (good for OP, but bad for the other guy). Regardless of if Edelman has a place on the guys roster or not, his value is still what it is (oversimplification, but you get the point).

Unless there is some weird scoring settings, or if the trade invloves players of two different positions, you can pretty much grade trades like this regardless of the league context.


#12

incorrect. trades are almost always team dependent. there are some trades that make complete sense for 1 team, but if another did it, it wouldnt make any sense. knowing team makeup is knowing why things might make sense instead of just face value.

that being said, you dont think 3 more years of gurley in a dynasty is worth it? lets say DJ plays for 3 more years, and gurley plays for 6. and in that time DJ averages RB2 overall. but gurley averages RB5 overall. would you not take gurley for 3 more years of top 5 production? and edelman, we have no idea what his role will be or if he will even stay healthy. we dont know if he has 1 year left, or 3. we dont know if tom brady will be tom brady this year. he is a tradeable bigger name that you can dump for face value when really you as an owner have no value in. there are plenty of reasons as to why this is a good trade for both. dont fall for the trap of thinking this game is black and white. there are a TON of different ways of playing and setting up a team. one of them is getting big named guys and selling them for that name. its something i have thought of doing with edelman myself if i had drafted him.

all in all, only time will really tell how good a trade is. so i could be completely wrong. or i could be completely correct next week. the off season works in mysterious ways haha.


#13

“Correct”… Trades are team dependent if you are giving up different types of players. But 95% of this transaction is made up of the same position and draft picks. It’s not like one guy had 3 all-star RBs and couldn’t play them all so he traded on for a WR. The meat of the trade was Gurley for DJ, and some draft picks thrown in. I get that at face value, some trades make no sense, but given the roster it could make perfect sense…but when you’re giving up one player to get the same positional player, team makeup doesn’t matter that much. He’s giving up one RB1 for another. He’s not even trading a low floor guy for a high floor guy or anything, they are essentially the same high caliber player.

The dude gave up the 1.03, a startable WR, and a 2nd round pick for the 1.09 and maybe an extra year or two with Gurley. It was a bad trade.


#14

an easy extra 3 years. gurley is 3 years younger. on a better team, heavy D which means a lot of runs to end out a game. a straight up trade between the 2 i would be in favor of gurley in dynasty. redraft this different, but dynasty when you are talking about a 26 year old, been injured a few times, on a bad team, VS a 23 year old, on a good team, and healthy as an ox. gurley for days. so the draft capitol makes up for that offset, and then edelman makes it so that new DJ owner still wins out, but a stud running back for potentially 3 extra years… that makes it worth it. its hard enough to find one, but to trade one for a younger one is pretty sweet. like i said man im not saying that for sure 100% this is a close to even trade, but it sure could be if things stay as is. but hell, we could find something out in an hour that flips everything on its head. im just saying i get the gurley side in the end. but i do still favor the DJ side.


#15

Hasn’t David Johnson been in the league the same amount of time that Gurley has? Idk why you think it’s such a sure thing that you’ll have substantially more time with Gurley than DJ. And DJ has one less year of damage/hits on his body than Gurley does. It is far from an “easy extra 3 years”. It’s typically about # of years played in the league, not what age you are. Those two things just obviously coincide usually.

And DJ was on a bad team before, and he was the best fantasy asset we have seen since LT back in the 2000s. I just don’t see the rationalization for doing this trade.


#16

age does have a factor in it. natural wear and tear of just getting older has an effect on everyone, unless your name is frank gore. im taking into account that DJ has already had a few injuries, and the wear and tear of that plus his age, it still equates out to about 3 more years for gurley.

as for DJ being on a bad team before, he was on a par team before. im thinking bad like, 2 and 14 bad. plus you cant count on him hitting LT numbers every year. the best in the world to ever play have had so so years. i get your point, i think you are just being too harsh on the trade. but hey, thats why we talk on these posts right? more info on what people think makes us all better players. :slight_smile:


#17

Age plays some factor, but they aren’t far off in age. It’s not like DJ is 30 with 3 years in the league. And you can count on him getting those numbers just as much as you can count on Gurley getting the numbers he hit this year…I guess I just disagree all around on the subject. Both that DJ has a substantially shorter life left in the NFL and that the trade was any sort of good for the Gurley recipient. Aint nothin but a thang tho :slight_smile:


#18

As the “baffoon” (as one classy guy wrote above) in this trade who got Gurley, I would say that your thought process is solid but like Buster said circumstances come into play. In our league lots of high value trades have already occured. I started with the #12 vet pick and had the 1.01. I traded that out, got Zeke and two firsts. I then traded back to the 1.02 and got DJ with it. I built up a nice forey of picks and gone from having one startable RB in M.Gordon to having Zeke, Gurley and three picks in the top 13 for this years draft as well as all my future picks still in play for 2019, 2020 including an extra 2nd round next year.

Yes DJ is a phenomenal player but the OP who had Gurley set his price way higher then this originally and we met in the middle of our valuations. You may call me a baffoon and say its a horrific trade but I am okay with it because I’m in a situation where I can compete for hopefully a few years. My average squad age is below 25 and I’ve got good depth at RB. WR and TE.


#19

? I’m sorry baffoon is so offensive to you? Haha. But you’re so right, how classless of me


#20

it’s not offensive to me no but just pointing out there are two sides to every story/trade and above is mine