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Who would you keep of these players? (way too early)


#1

It’s a “touchdown league,” and by that, I mean 20 rush/receiving yards = 1 point (vs 10 yards).

It’s a 12-team league, and it’s 3WR/2RB/1TE (no flex).

I am definitely keeping Todd Gurley and DeAndre Hopkins, so that leaves 2WR/1RB. Here are my choices, and I can only keep one. I’ve listed them in order of who I SHOULD keep:

  1. Jordan Howard
  2. Michael Thomas
  3. Zach Ertz
  4. Derrick Henry
  5. Jay Ajayi
  6. JuJu Smith-Schuster
  7. Allen Robinson
  8. Marquise Goodwin
  9. Will Fuller V

Thanks everyone!


#2

Jordan Howard SEEMS like the obvious choice, but here’s what’s making my decision difficult:

  1. Michael Thomas is, at the very least, super consistent. He also showed that he can be a dominant RZ threat in his playoff game against the Vikings (2 TDs against great corners). Brees looked for him.

  2. Zach Ertz put up numbers similar to a good Gronk season, and he’s a TE, meaning there’s a decent drop off behind him.

  3. Henry will likely not have to deal with Murray anymore. Henry as a lead back > Jordan Howard? Nah?

  4. Ajayi will also likely be a lead back with a year in this system. Ajayi in lead role > Jordan Howard? Nah?

  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster was one of the highest-scoring WRs in a per-game basis when you consider the adjustment they made during the season to get him more involved. He could end up being a WR10 or WR12 for the entire league, perhaps outscoring Thomas. And he’s a TD guy, and this is a TD league.

(Now we’re getting to the players I’m much less confident in)

  1. Allen Robinson was one of the top WRs in the league in years past, or at least has been. He’s an elite talent.

  2. Marquise Goodwin is Jimmy G’s go-to guy. Will probably be a WR2 next year.

  3. Will Fuller was RIDICULOUS in his few games, especially in a TD league.


#3

For me it would be between Thomas and Ertz… but I think i’d lean towards Thomas due to consistency and that is a nice thing to have at your WR #2. Ertz is tempting though.


#4

Thomas or Ertz but I would lean Ertz. Like said earlier big drop off at TE. Ertz is dominate when healthy and u can stream rb and wr a lot better than a TE


#5

Question for you, do you lose a draft pick for the keepers? If so, what picks do you lose for each player?


#6

Nah, the draft starts in Round 4 for everyone because we all are assumed to pick each of our 3 keepers for the first 3 rounds of the draft. Draft order is based on how each team finished the previous season. I won the league championship (for once), so I’ll be picking 12th. It’s not snake either.


#7

Not sure if that’s what you’re asking


#8

Yeah that answers my question. as i see it you’re getting 2 - 1st rounders in Gurley and Hopkins. Thomas’ ADP will probably have him in the late 1st or early 2nd in redraft leagues being the #4 WR in PPR, Howard is the #16 RB and will probably be in the late 2nd/early 3rd round. Ertz… I dont have a feel for where he’ll go next year. So I would think you could still probably get him or Kelce in the draft. Or you could look at who everyone will probably keep for next year and if there is someone that only has 1 or 2 true keepers try trading them your 3 (i.e. if someone has AB and no one else worth keeping, see if they’d take Howard, Ertz and Thomas for him). Then you’d have 3 - 1st rounders for next year


#9

I say Thomas or Ertz.


#10

you got your top 2 right. thomas or howard. i dont keep a TE, especially a TE whos QB may not even start the first couple games. here is what i would do to choose between them. look at the other teams, and figure out who you would keep from their teams. that should give you a good idea of the pool of players. next, would be to know what pick you have. some leagues will tell you early because its based off of finish in league championship, some do random every year.if you know the order everyone will pick in, find your spot, and figure out who will take what ahead of you. this is where understanding your league mates comes in hand. if you pick at 8, and the 7 guys before you need WR and there are a bunch of good ones out there to take, keep a WR and draft the highest RB on your board. same for vise versa. this gives you the best chance to get a good return on who ever you let go.

otherwise if you dont want to do all that work, just take howard. it shores up your running game giving you 2 top 12 potential RBs, and its easier to fill the WR spot than it is the RB. case and point, you yourself are giving up Juju and robinson. both guys who can be WR1. along with will fuller and goodwin, both guys who can be mid to high WR2s.

now here comes the fun part, because i think ajayi might rival howard for that spot on your team. ajayi’s stats this year were not impressive, but that was changing teams mid season, and sharing the backfield. with blount gone (if he IS gone which i expect him to be) ajayi takes over that first and second down spot. he was already ramping up toward the end of the season, getting more and more touches every single game. along with continuing this trend into the playoffs. wentz doesnt play the first 4 games? no problem. he produced just fine without him, even in the playoffs agaisnt the vikings. there is a case to be made here. but that case needs more information. so, if you have to decide soon, its howard over ajayi. if you can wait till your draft or around that time, then keep ajayi in mind i would say.

anyway, sorry for the novel. i can ramble on for hours if you let me haha.


#11

BusterD, I’m very sorry for missing this response until now (I haven’t logged in in awhile). But thank you VERY MUCH for putting so much effort and thought into both my original post and your subsequent response. Very awesome to see people actually take pride in the peer support they offer rather than “Thomas all day n00b!”

I still find it fascinating how far down Howard is on so many rankings I’ve seen. I get that he’s never a top 3 scoring RB in any given week, but he’s essentially always top 10, and that has to count for something. I get that Michael Thomas is, too, but RB is a premium position.


#12

Hey man no problem! It’s what we are here for right? To learn and to think outside the box. No one wants to be a rankings slave, you gotta put more into each move than “well this guy is higher”. I’m a big believer in every situation is different, you just gotta sniff out how.

Yeah it’s tough cause Thomas is an all but locked in WR1. But you already have a duo that is solid as hell with hopkins and Gurley. And every team needs a solid one two punch at RB. you just happen to have the luxary of being able to choose between another WR1, or a high end RB2 with RB1 potential. I do see a world in this new matt nagy offense that Howard out scores Thomas. I think it’s a slim chance, but still there. I just like the positional advantage of 2 high end RBs. It’s also not like you are going just RB, you do still have Hopkins. So with that you get the option to choose. And that’s the best luxary to have, choice.


#13

I would go Ertz. Having a stud TE can be a difference maker, especially in this format. There is such a drop off in TE as it is, but with this scoring format making receiving yards worth half as much. Ertz had 8 TDs last season, and they got rid of Burton who had 5, so he should have enough TDs to make him a difference maker at the position.


#14

Mike Thomas hands down. I think he has more TD potential than Howard. The way your league is set up yards dont play a factor as much so Howard would be my second choice because of that fact.