:EDIT: i posted this, and just realized how long this is. holy crap. my bad haha. but if you read it all, let me know what you think!
so as the title suggests, i have an idea in my head. Sammy Watkins is undervalued by the fantasy football community. almost to the point where it is criminal! i have brought it up in multiple conversations with multiple people on this site, and off. and i know, im a Kansas City Chiefs fan so im a little biased… but am i really on this? i try my best to stay unbiased in my opinions because it leads to bad choices in FFB. but i keep on coming back to this. so im going to lay it down for you all, and i want to hear what you guys think. alright, lets dive in!
as of right now, Watkins ADP (according to HPPR 12 man ADP which is what i will base all of this off of as its the most consistent point wise between full PPR and standard) he is going in the 6th round. which means he is going around players like corey davis, michael crabtree, julian edelman, and the worst of all to me is… chris hogan is going before him. chris hogan? really?! not only did he have more receptions, yards, and TDs than hogan ever has had in a single year, Watkins did it with jared goff, and not getting an offseason to work on chemistry. and it was watkins worst year! with a QB that had almost 100 less attempts than the average QB did last year, and missed Watkins quite a few times. this is the same team that made sure to give gurley the ball as often as they could, because he was their offense. he was their best RB, AND best WR. that should tell you that his low numbers were not because he couldnt put up bigger numbers.
lets look at his time in buffalo. he had Tyrod Taylor throwing to him. the only guy that makes Alex smith look like a bad boy when it comes to how safe he is. he throws so little its insane as well. and yet during his time there, he put up good numbers. not great, but good. im not going to spend too much time on this, but the only thing that held him back was a foot injury. one that didnt get fixed right the first time so he had to go back for it. then it got fixed correctly. shouldnt be a problem, he went a full season no issue. so for those that are worried about reinjury, i wouldnt be.
so, of the QBs that he has had throw to him, its been safe and low attempts. no one is really going to thrive in that kind of situation. so what does he have now? a rocket arm of a QB who is set to set the world on fire with the weapons around him. but its right there, thats where people get stuck. the first argument i get isnt oh injuries, or oh low productivity last year, its whats around him. “tyreek hill is the 1! kelce is the second look! watkins falls to 3rd look!” and its there there i just dont get it. how no one else can see this. they aid sammy watkins. let me say that again… they PAID Sammy Watkins. they paid him as a top 5 WR, to the tune of only AB, Hopkins, and mike evans were the only ones paid more than him at the time. those are all guys you expect to be the WR1 on their team. there is no questioning that. so why would they pay him that way, to be 3rd fiddle? maybe watkins doesnt put up 100 catches for 1500 yards and 15 TDs or something insane like that. that money doesnt say he has to do that. what it says is, THIS is our WR1. not tyreek the freak, Watkins.
so now that i have voiced my opinion of that, so whats a reasonable expectation for watkins? well, thats kind of simple with a twist of not so much. he averages 16 yards a catch for his career. lets knock him down a yard just cause. i think he gets around 80 receptions as their WR1. tyreek will probably go back to around where he was when he was the 2, so probably 60ish to 70 receptions. still plenty for him to be valuable. but that puts watkins at 1200 yards. my guess, around 8 TDs as well. hard to say, so im just going to go with what he got with what he had when he had half of the receptions i have him pegged for this year. that puts him at 248 points last year (in PPR cause i couldnt find a points table quickly that was HPPR so i got lazy here) which would make him WR8 last year. im not going to lie, i know. that sounds high to me too. but i expect a lot of passing from the chiefs. and i expect the WR1 to get the lions share. and going off of his career numbers, and pegging him as the WR1 on that team, thats what gets spit out. if im honest, i dont expect those points. i think the balance of the offense should bring that number down. but i still have him pegged as WR14 for 2018. which is what tyreek the freak is sitting at ADP wise, and only 14 spots away from where watkins is getting drafted. and thats why i think its criminal. but, ill take my value and run with it.
if you read the whole thing, i appreciate it! i know its far too long but i do tend to ramble. let me know what you think! any metric that im missing? point you think needs to be made? let me know! cause i do feel kind of crazy with what i think, since it seems like no one else thinks the same thing. also, i didnt spell check any of this so if something doesnt make sense, thats my bad. my editor quit.