I mean he seems to be pretty consistently everyone’s 6th/7th WR so it’s not like anyone is particularly low on him. But I feel like there’s no analysis on him. It’s like everyone is just like, “Oh, Aaron Rodgers’ default #1? Just throw him in at like 6.” But I’d put him as my #4 easily ahead of Julio and Thomas. I want to say he doesn’t have the ceiling Julio has but then again why not? Julio just plain wasn’t good in the redzone for one and you can’t compare Matt Ryan to Aaron Rodgers. You also have to lock Julio into missing at least 2-3 games with a 99.9% guarantee. People like to say Adams just isn’t as talented as the other guys around him… but is that even true? Look at his numbers with Brett Hundley last year lol… he was almost as safe of a pick as Thomas who had Drew Brees throwing him the ball. He doesn’t have any crazy measurables but I still think he’s a high end talent. Honestly the only thing you can argue against him is that his numbers with Rodgers weren’t fantastic in the early season… but Jordy was also healthy over that stretch and just yoinking TDs left and right. IMO, with Rodgers healthy and Jordy gone, Adams has just as high of a ceiling as any of the top end WRs with less question marks than a lot of them.
Pretty sure it’s the exact opposite of what you’re saying. Everyone has him around the 6-7 spot which in my opinion, is very high on him already.
No shot I would take him over JJ. JJ is one of the leagues best receivers and offers a ceiling that is pretty much only matched by AB but he does it with less catches and targets. Everyone just low on him cause he had a statistically outlier TD season. You act like Julio putting up 1400 yards on 80 catches i somehow bad? That was his floor. 3 TDs on like 20 red zone targets is just historically low, I see some reversion to the mean there. Matt Ryan also had a statistically poor season in TD rate. If one or both of those revert to the mean, not the 2016 year cause that was an outlier on the high end, but just the mean, JJ would’ve had like 6-8 TDs last year. Then we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. So it would be foolish to take adam over JJ. Not so “easily” as you have said if you actually dig into any meaningful metrics or numbers. The only argument everyone uses for Adams is oh, he did this with hundley so therefore, he must be 10x better with Rodgers. That is just simply lazy analysis. In fact, when poor QBs play, they typically lock into the top guy cause they don’t have the skill/ability to make 2nd/3rd/4th reads. You saw this last year after Palmer went down, stanton locked into Fitz. When Watson went down, he locked into Hopkins. When Winston wasn’t playing, Fitz locked into Evans. That is clearly not the case with Rodgers. Rodgers spreads the ball around and finds then open man and is shown by history.
Also where are you getting this JJ missing 2-3 games with 99.9% guarantee? That is completely false and totally bogus. Seems like you’re someone that just like listens to random hot takes or reads article headlines and takes that as fact. JJ has missed 2 games in the last 3 seasons combined. And that was in 2016 and guess what his stat line was? 1409 yards and 6 TDs on 83 receptions. Find me another WR in the league who can do that. I’ll wait.
Taking the cut and paste approach of Jordy’s stats to Adams doesn’t work. I’m sure @DFWB will chime in with that analysis for you later so I won’t even bother.
Now comparing to Thomas, Thomas is about as safe as they come. He is also due from some positive regression along with Brees. Last year was his lowest passing statistically ever. But his advanced metrics were still fantastic in terms of accuracy, deep ball passes and the #1 beneficiary of all that is Thomas. Thomas is probably due for some TD improvement, especially early on in the season without Ingram, they’ll likely lean on him more in the redzone. And Thomas just doesn’t bust as a WR. He is extremely reliable in terms of production and is easily on the best WRs in the league and he is only in his 3rd year, which is when typical receivers break out. Although he has already done that.
With Adams, taking him as WR6-7, is drafting him on the upside. There isn’t too much more room for him to go. He scored double digit TDs last year and probably will again this year. But he just isn’t someone who is going to go out there and get you 1400 yards. And if his TDs regress at all, you’re pretty much dead in the water. Guys like Thomas and JJ do not rely on TDs to produce but they are both due for positive reversion on those metrics when comparing to historical averages.
The gap between JJ/MT and Adams is huge for me. and I actually Love adams. Love the situation, love the player but I’m not foolish enough to just ignore all of the evidence, stats that back up JJ/MT. I’ll happily take Adams in the mid-late 2nd but there is no chance I am taking him in the bottom of the 1st which is where I would draft JJ and MT.
regarding the red zone usage, I feel like Jimmy Graham was brought on to fill that void, so there’s very little reason to me to feel confident his red zone usage goes up this year, so I think people are valuing him pretty fairly right now
I love him in the second !
Maybe taking him over Julio is a bit aggressive… Also, where did I say Julio had a bad season? lmfao. I said he was bad in the red zone. Are you going to argue that point? Because that would make you look pretty stupid bud.
To address the 2-3 missed games. Sure he won’t sit out… he’ll just play injured and get you 2 for 20… because that’s a lot better. Thanks for supporting my argument there.
I had this conversation last year about Julio too so stop acting like 3TDs is the only thing that concerns people about him. He’s incredibly inconsistent and last year, just like the year before, 20% of his fantasy production came in 1 game… he’s almost as inconsistent as AJ Green who you can get 10 picks later (which is a crime in and of itself).
I also never said just copy and paste Jordy’s stats but to just ignore the fact that the defacto number 1 has left town should at the very least be mentioned lol. To just say Jordy leaving won’t affect Adams (who was already getting the #1 CB treatment with Jordy) at all is not only lazy but extremely bias.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, I won’t say I’d easily take Adams over Julio. But do keep in mind. If Julio Improves on every number and goes 90/1500/5… that’s 270 points. The same number as if Adams goes 90/1200/10… Which if the targets are higher quality (upgrade from Hundley to Rodgers should provide higher qulaity targets… unless you want to argue that too lmfao) he won’t even need that many more targets to hit those numbers… and if he hits the 90 reception mark with his reception avg from 2016 (his full year with Rodgers), 1200 yards is very achievable… And that’s just what I would think he should achieve this year… not what he could achieve. To your point though… Julio obviously has the higher upside, and looking more at the consistent yardage totals, I would rank him over Adams.
As for MT, you’re basing your analysis on a Drew Brees that no longer exists. You can expect his numbers to increase but his ceiling isn’t much higher than what you’re drafting him at right now with how that team operated last season and should operate (barring multiple major defensive and RB injuries) this year. If MT puts up more points this year and the entire WR pendulum were to swing back to 2015 style, then people drafting MT as the 4th/5th WR will be very disappointed with what they could’ve had in all the guys around him. I won’t go any more indepth with the Brees/NO analysis, Andy and Jason have already gone to great lengths explaining why last years Saints is the new norm… Mike is the only one who likes Brees and his analysis on why is basically the same as yours… “Brees did it when he had no D or Run game and was trailing most games, so why can’t he do it now that he has a great D and incredible run game and wins most games?” If you can’t figure that one out yourself, I can’t help you.
So in conclusion (I don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea here) I won’t say easily but I still believe Adams has immense upside. I still put him in that 2nd tier of Julio, MT, TY, etc… He will probably have a lower yardage and reception total, but correct me if I’m wrong, I believe he leads the league in TDs for WRs over the last 2 season. I see no reason for that to change and 1TD=60yards… I think you’re getting a value on any of these guys if they just match what they should do this season given where they’re being drafted.
Adams has just as many bust games except he can’t offer you the 200 yard upside games that JJ can. Bust games are just part of the game so to pretend like it’s only JJ that has those is careless. JJ had a bust game (7.9 points or less) in 12.5% of games last year. Adams had a bust rate of 14.3%. They’re basically even so not sure where your argument comes into play there except for the fact that Adams actually has more injury concerns with concussions. Missed 2 games just last season alone. Another year before that and I think like 4-5 year before that.
Like you said, AJ green going that late is already a crime. They should both be going higher. Would argue that green is on a much worse offense than JJ and isn’t as talented as JJ either but I love green as well. If you’re making this argument for Adams in standard leagues, I could maybe see it cause Adams has much higher upside for TDs. But in any PPR formats, it just doesn’t hold.
I also never said Jordy leaving wouldn’t affect adams, I just don’t think it will be as drastic as everyone thinks. I think the people who benefit the most will be guys like Cobb and whoever works out to be that 3rd guy. Rodgers will spread it out.
Not sure why you think 5 TDs is his average. Before last season, every full season he’s played, he’s had at minimum, 6 TDs and on the high end, 10 TDs. And they are actually involving him more in redzone compared to prior seasons as well so if anything, I would see 7-8 TDs as more than reasonable with 1400-1500 yards and about 85-95 receptions.
Whereas for Adams, he has never had a 1k yard season. I think he does it this year but I also don’t think him hitting 10 TDs and 1200 yards is a given. No one argued Rodgers targets are not higher quality so no need to try and put words in my mouth. What I said was the top receivers don’t see as much of an effect on overall production cause bad QBs lock into top guys and we saw it last year. The lack of quality gets made up for in volume. So I see improvement, just not drastic improvement. I think the WR2/3 are the ones who stand to benefit most from Rodgers.
As for Drew brees, this narrative that he has somehow declined and now sucks is bogus. He ranks 1st or 3rd in almost all metrics that matter like I said. Accuracy on deep balls, deep ball success rate etc. The only thing that changed last year was volume because their defense and run game drastically outperformed. The saints just added Cameron meredith in the slot and drafted smith. It’s not like they don’t want to pass. If you think the one season completely counteracts his entire career and Sean payton’s entire career of being a pass heavy offensive mind, then that’s your right. But MT’s performance also doesn’t even require brees to go back to his historically high passing years. But even a slight reversion to the mean benefits MT tremendously given his target share. If you look at MT’s targets, not only are they trending up, but so is the aDOT. So he’s getting higher quality targets. Also like I said, there is positive reversion to the mean coming there for his red zone looks/targets as well.
No one here is saying Adams sucks or can’t perform, I really like adams. He has the 12-14 TD upside. But he doesn’t have the yardage upside. I don’t think 1200 yards is that easily attainable for him.
In your original post you said you would EASILY take adams over JJ and MT. And i provided points to show why that shouldn’t be the case.
Aaron Rodgers has targeted a WR more than 140 times exactly twice, and both were Jordy Nelson, a much, much better player with whom he had a freakish and well documented connection. And that happened twice. In 9 years.
And even if he did get that kind of workload, there’s no evidence that he could deliver the same yardage. Nelson’s career catch % is 65.7% and career ypr is 14.3 (expected yardage of 1315 yards if he gets 140 targets). Comparatively, the best years of Adams career were 63.2% (2017) and 13.3 (2016) (expected yardage of 1176 yards if he gets 140 targets). So not only would he have to have an outlier season for am Aaron Rodgers WR, from a target perspective, he’d also have to be a more efficient player than he has ever shown himself to be. All while facing #1 corners every game for the first time.
Guys consistently going in the 2nd round who are virtual locks for 140+ targets: AJ Green, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen. They also all have a higher career average yards per reception, catch %, or both. I’d take any of those guys over Adams in any format.
Literally half your original response and even parts of your 2nd response has you putting words in my mouth lol, but K.
So with a different offensive coordinator, in a different offensive scheme before, he scored more? That’s good to know. I won’t be surpsied to see 7-8, but to just lock it in is silly. He looked bad on those Redzone targets… Idk why he can be a freak athlete everywhere on the field, but toss him an easy 4 yard jump ball and he looks like Amari Cooper…
Concussions aren’t predictive injuries, Julio’s foot being an issue at some point is.
With Brett Hundley throwing him the ball and Jordy still on the team. Not really a fair comparison considering in 2016 he was the clear #2 behind Jordy who had a monster season and still only missed the 1000 yard mark by 3 yards.
In my defense, this is my first year playing full PPR, I’m coming from a half PPR background, and in that format, Julio would’ve gotten you less points than Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette who missed multiple games… That 1 big game is weighed even more heavily on his season total. There’s a reason that, over the past 2 seasons, owning Julio Jones and starting him every week isn’t nearly as appealing as the end of season stats make it seem like it was. And it isn’t because he’s had bad annual totals. Picking a WR in the first round, you’re looking for a stud who will finish as a Top 12 WR in at least 60% of their games. That guy is not Julio Jones. Hate to break it to you. If you want to Draft him that’s fine. But I won’t have him on any of my teams, I’ve totally faded him both of the last 2 years and have managed at least the semi-finals in every league each year, so I’m content with my dislike of him. Draft him if you want.
Again putting words in my mouth after crying about me putting words in your mouth lol…
Never said Brees himself has gotten worse. I’m saying the team is running differently than it has in recent history. Brees isn’t chucking 50 yard bombs all game anymore, not because he can’t, but because he doesnt need to. I admitted that the passing game does have room to expand, but for one, Cam Meredith is a better WR than Snead or Ginn have been so he’s bound to cannibalize targets. I think the biggest upside Thomas has is in TDs since the team will score a lot, and he’s due for an outlier TD year. I’m just saying, his ceiling isn’t anything like an AB, OBJ, or Julio career year… not even close. I do like Thomas as a very safe WR option that has very little chance to fail but has limited “league winning” upside. I would be very happy with him in the 2nd if I snagged someone like Zeke or DJ.
Concussions aren’t predictive injuries, Julio’s foot being an issue at some point is.
Concusions are recurring injuries. The more you have, the easier they are to get again.
Very few injuries are predictive injuries. If anything concussions compound more than others. And with the leagues increasing protocal when it comes to concussions, the next time he takes a hit, will likely get pulled even if he isn’t concussed.
No one is locking in 7-8 TDs, I said if he performs at his average of historical seasons, given his increased red zone looks, there is a very high probability that he will be getting 7-8 TDs.
Also, I don’t really get the argument of removing JJ blow up games. That is part of that player when you draft him. he offers you the upside of potentially going for 250 yards and winning you a week. And sure he busts but so does every receiver. That’s the nature of being a WR. Adams is no different. AB who is viewed as the model of consistency busted 21.3% last year. Not sure how comparing JJ to Fournette or RBs do. RBs score more that’s not the discussion here. Discussion here is between Adams and JJ and MT.
I agree that last year, JJ had a down year for sure. That entire offense did. But i am not throwing them out yet. Even under Shannahan, it took the offense a couple years before they started clicking. last year was basically JJ floor. But yes agree that he didn’t give you as many stud performances last year as previously. But neither does Adams who was at 57%. If anything, this is an argument for MT who gave you WR2 or better 75% of the time. So I mean you’re either looking for consistency or your looking for ceiling. That is one of the most common trade offs we have to make in fantasy. Adams does not exceed julio in ceiling nor does he exceed MT in floor which is why I wouldn’t pick him over either one.
I would also take AB, OBJ over MT. But again, that wasn’t the comparison. You said you would EASILY take Adams over both JJ and MT. No one is saying you should take MT over AB or JJ, that would be silly. But I don’t think Adams has the league winning upside either that AB or OBJ offer. Zeke/DJ + MT would be an amazing open. And I would also rather have that open than Zeke/DJ+ adams.
He faced the #1 coverage in almost every game last year?.. The analysis by mid season was that Adams should be regarded as the new #1 because that’s how opposing teams were treating him… and he still managed to finish just outside of the top 12 while playing only 14 games and having Hundley as the QB more than half the season. I may have been overly bullish on him in my original post and I see your points of him having to be more efficient than he has before, but I do believe he will be more efficient this year with a higher YPR and having a similar TD total in the double digits. With TDs being the most volatile statistic in fantasy, I definitely understand the concern… but the sad fact remains, with Hundley as his QB and less than 900 yards on the season, Adams still gave you almost twice as many BOOM (20+ point) PPR performances than Julio on less games than Julio lol…
I am coming away from this liking Michael Thomas even more though as he had just as many Boom weeks as adams with half as many scores… Like I’ve said in a previous reply… my mindset is still stuck on half point valuing, but digging more into what these numbers mean in full PPR, I’m starting to revalue some of these players.
If you’re drafting looking for blow up games… why not go with someone like Adams who had almost twice as many 20+ point performances on less games? But I didn’t really mean to be comparing Julio to RBs, I was just explaining that I don’t like him but that’s okay because with where he goes there’s plenty of ways to avoid him and I just listed a reason as to why I’d rather stack 2 tier 2 RBs than one of those guys and Julio… I did take back my statement of “easily” twice now so that isn’t an issue anymore, I did admit Julio has league winning upside but I just don’t want an “average” Julio year to be on my team at all… I dont see another 1900 yard season in the cards for him at this point… all that being said, I do somewhat get stuck in the half PPR mindset where TDs are still vastly superior to volume (not that you can just chase TDs in any format though certain players will score more than others), and now that I’m looking at the numbers and what they mean for full PPR, I’m starting to really like Thomas. More as many “boom” weeks as Adams with half as many scores, but only 1 week where he busted… In half PPR last year that certainly wasn’t the case, but I didn’t think he was bad last year either regardless… he was super consistent and a player I tried to get on my team all year. I would rather have him on my team than Julio, I prefer consistent points with the occassional boom over week winner or bust… Adams felt super consisted last year due to his scores being spread out but I can see that in full PPR scoring, the TDs aren’t as important… I get all the points your making but I’m still avoiding Julio in all leagues in all formats unless he like fell past those Tier 2 guys for some reason… at that point its worth the shot to me.
I can’t argue with MT over JJ at all. His consistency is pretty much unrivaled. Maybe he doesn’t win you weeks just by himself like Julio, but if you construct your team properly, he will be a great contributor and will definitely never lose you a week on his own like JJ either.