Hey guys I have the 4th pick in a 12 team dynasty league and am unsure of who I should draft. Im currently thinking of jamarr chase, Justin Jefferson and najee Harris, but am leaning more towards chase. Just wanted to get some extra opinions and see who I should aim for. Thanks for the help
IMHO either Jefferson or Chase. I’d lean ever so slightly toward Jefferson but that’s just preference. I think there are more surrounding factors to suggest Chase so it makes sense if you went that way. In the end, though, I think you’ll see both succeed / fail on any given week or any given season but in the end the difference is probably slight if any.
For me, there’s is almost zero chance I’m ever taking RB in a startup first round. Especially in the top 6. I know many people are heavy RB builds but for me I’m only going that way once the rest of my team is set and I’m looking to make the push. Grabbing a 21 year old WR in Chase to set up my dynasty squad, for example, is too much to pass on.
I will say that if this is a Super Flex league I’d absolutely pivot to Allen / Mahomes / Herbert over all the other players available, but it doesn’t sound like this is a SF league.
Hey thanks for the incredible feedback. It’s not a super flex league and you are convincing me not to get a running back. If Jefferson or chase is gone by the 1.04 should I aim for aj brown or test my luck in Kyle pitts? My backup plan for chase/Jefferson was najee Harris but you mentioned alot of good points. I was also offered the 1.01 for my 1.04 with a 3rd round 2023 pick. You think I should try that…at least lock up one of the two wide receivers. Thanks
I like Pitts if you are in TE premium. If not, he’s good but I’d be just as happy with M Andrews who you could grab in the 2nd / 3rd depending on how things look when draft time rolls around. Also falling back to Hock / Muth / Knox later on is not a bad option. I really like Pitts but I’d be hesitant to pull the trigger too early, again unless you have a TE+ scoring. In other scoring IDNK the difference is worth it.
I do like AJB and he’s probably my next pick after JJ / Chase. Lamb / DK should be there but there’s something keeping me from feeling super comfy with them. Might be a mistake, but watch for falling values. In the 3rd I snap up either of them.
I would move the 1.04 + 23 3rd for the 1.01. I really love the 23 class, but in the 3rd it starts to be less impressive. Still very good, but not like the top end of that class is looking. I’m after all the 1st / 2nd 2023 picks I can get. After that I’m okay fading for value.
Knowing I could get the 1.01 would be awesome. I suspect you’d be okay landing 1 of those 2 at the 1.04. I suspect someone will take JT / Najee early. Maybe Pitts as well? However owning that 1.01 means you definitely get your guy to start your dynasty team and that’s valuable. Even if he might be there at 1.04.
Who your guy is will be your pre-season stress
I am fortunate in that I have 2:2 of them. I had 3:1 JJ to Chase but just made a trade last night to balance them. Personally I like JJ more but I’ve also been overweight on a player and it smashed me in season due to injury. This way I have equal shares and I think they are both top tier studs so it’s really splitting hairs. I do not think there is a right answer. Just grab the one you like and it’s all good!
FWIW I understand the RB build and it can be very effective. My experience is that they only blast for a couple years normally and then they are good but replaceable. WRs typically age better and that’s appealing to me. I grab RB with picks in trades once I feel I am ready. I prefer players I’ve seen when I think I am going to make a push and let the chips fall where they may. It might mean I have a shorter fuse since they are not rookies, but I’ve also seen NFL film on them. I appreciate that extra layer of knowledge baked into the price.
That’s just me.
Also, it’s not bad to go a little earlier on QB, even not in SF. While you can definitely stream the position it is a weekly headache and waiver wire scramble. I’d rather take a young stud in the 4th / 5th which might seem early to some, but if I land Allen / Mahomes / Herbert / Burrow or even Prescott then I likely am not worried about the position for a decade easy. It removes one weekly consideration and typically locks in high points since you need to start one. I wouldn’t jump too early and I’d read the room, but IMHO it’s not bad to take a QB a round or so earlier than their ADP suggests. I find I’d rather start a run than get shut out of a tier.
Awesome help. Thanks. I was able to squeeze out a 2022 rookie 3rd round pick from the guy, so I got the 1.01 and 2022 3rd rounder for the 1.04 and 2023 3rd rounder. Due to Kirk cousins being a free agent, I think I’m going after chase with the 1.01, as my draft is next week. Figured I’m good for the next few years. Thanks foe the help
I would go Chase off of upside and knowing who his QB is going forward at this time. Chase was better than Jefferson in College and his first year in the pros. No knock on Jefferson. Najee has upside but I worry too much about the Pittsburg offense.
Also I posted a similar question just now, would love to hear feedback.
That’s a good pull. Do you know where in the '22 3rd you are picking? I really like some of the early 3rd players. Good luck with the draft!