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WR Keeper Question


#1

Hey Guys, Foot clan member here. Looking for my first Championship.

League info
12 team / 8th pick/ .5 Ppr/ Flex (RB,WR,TE)

Who do I keep ?
Keenan Allen 3rd rd 8th pick
Stephon Diggs 5th rd 8th pick

Im torn because I really want to keep Allen who I can pair with another top 5 WR (based on keepers) and a decent RB. Or I go Diggs and have a more well rounded team.

Any and ALL advice is appreciated !!

Thank Footclan !!!


#2

its tough, because they both have an injury history. either way you are getting a value because they are both for under their current value. i believe in keenan allen. not just his abilities, but his health too. between the 2 im more confident in allen playing 16 than i am diggs doing that. i would take allen.


#3

Thanks for the advice, im leaning that way to. Greatly appreciated.


#4

It is close, but I go for Allen as well.


#5

Allen is the better player in a better offense. 3rd round is great value too. His injury history is also more “freakish” than Diggs. Plus, he’s THE GUY whereas Diggs splits with Theilan, Rudolph, and Cooks as well. Especially with Cousins in tow. Allen is the obvious choice IMO


#6

only thing i dont fully agree with is crowning the chargers as a better offense. they are good, but so were the vikings last year with case keenum. and that was without cook for most of the season. nothing against case he played great, but he played more game manager great. although on paper the talent is better for the chargers with more proven talent. vikings are just young. in a nutshell i actually agree, i just have my reservations lol.


#7

Vikings Offense > Chargers Offense

Diggs+Thielin > Williams+Allen
Viking Oline > Chargers Oline
Cousins > Rivers
Rudolph > Probably old man Gates


#8

While I agree the overall Vikings offense could be better. Between Diggs or Allen. Who will have better numbers ?

I think that based on how you broke it down. Allen is more Alpha WR considering there is no Theilan or rudolph to take away targets.

But I could also get a better RB combo if I go Diggs with the 5th

So I’m leaning Allen. But still not 100%. All his info is very helpful though. Thanks guys !


#9

Just remember that Allen doesn’t get end zone looks, Diggs does. One TD is worth 4 catches for 40 yds. While healthy I think Diggs gets comparable numbers, but he is two rounds cheaper.

In these situations always take into account team composition. You aren’t comparing Diggs vs. Allen, factor in draft picks, so for 12 team PPR an example might be:
Diggs+Guice vs. Allen+Corey Davis

Not that these are that far off, but to keep in mind.


#10

Diggs is so … how you say… untrustworthy . his ceiling is great just like allen but has not broke the 1000 yard season yet.

New QB there might help that but diggs over allen IMO

I’m taking Allen every time. its close… but… not that close


#11

I would go Allen. Dude is a beast, has a real shot at being a top 5-7 WR, and the Hunter Henry injury only helps his potential target count.


#12

Getting Allen at the bottom of the third is better than getting diggs at the end of the 5th. Allen is a bottom 1st top 2nd rounder. Diggs is probably a late 3rd rounder. Jumping from Bottom third to bottom 1st/top 2nd > jumping from bottom 5th to the bottom 3rd / top 4th which is where Diggs value will likely end up.


#13

@Windowlicker, @FantasyFootballDad, @MikeMeUpp We disagree a little with Digg’s upside, but…what about the draft picks. I mean the dropoff in value between a 3rd rounder and a 5th rounder is steep.


#14

Allen has less competition for targets, and the Vikings will try to be more of a running team than the Chargers.

Also the statement that Allen doesn’t get end zone like and Diggs does is not true. In 2017 Allen got 24 red zone targets (33.8% of his teams red zone targets) and 14 end zone targets (32.6% of his teams end zone targets), 159 total targets accounting for 27.7% of his teams targets. Diggs got 14 red zone targets (24.6% of his teams red zone targets) and 8 end zone targets (26.7% of his teams end zone targets), 95 total targets accounting for 20.9% of his teams targets.

I would keep Allen in the 3rd, go RB/RB in the 1st and 2nd, and if Diggs is still there in the 4th grab him there


#15

Allen’s targets were not in the end zone, those are mostly around the 5 to 2 yard line. They were trying to set up Gordon.

I am not saying you are wrong for valuing Allen over Diggs, but I haven’t seen anyone factor the value of the players taken with those picks.


#16

He had 24 red zone targets, 14 of them were in the end zone, 4 were caught for TDs


#17

Can we agree those are not good red zone metrics? Also from the film, he was 11/24, 7 of those receptions were outside the end zone, and of his 4 TDs 2 of them were end zone targets.

We may just disagree on this one.


#18

They are actually pretty standard red zone numbers for a high end WR.

Keenan Allen: 24 Red Zone Targets, 14 End Zone Targets
Michael Thomas: 16 Red Zone Targets, 6 End Zone Targets
Antonio Brown: 21 Red Zone Targets, 14 End Zone Targets


#19

Keenan Allen for sure. Go with the better player when the rounds are that close together. If you were talking like an 8th or later then you’d consider diggs but I think you are better off with Allen


#20

Not sure where you are getting your end zone numbers, but mine or pretty different. Just to be clear we are talking about a target where the receiver is in the end zone at the time of release?

Either way Diggs has and 85% catch rate in the red zone, better than any other WR last season. He was the 11th best in the ten zone.

Water bet? Diggs vs Allen in TDs? Bet is void if either player misses more than two games?