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Your opinion matters: 12team 1/2PPR keeper league


#1

Hi FootClan,
Long time listener to podcast and considering a membership. First time on the site and impressed.
I need some advice on my keepers going into the 2018 season. I can keep up to three players and I have the 5th pick in a snake draft (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex league). Here is who I’m considering:

Odell Beckham Jr. - 6th round
David Johnson - 8th round
Tyreek Hill - 10th round
Deshaun Watson - 12th round

I’m torn between Tyreek and Deshaun (the other two are obviously the top 2 keepers). Do I get a starting stud to cover 3 positions (QB, RB and WR) or stack as much on the skill players and maybe target Gronk and Rodgers a little earlier than their ADP? I’m spoiled having to make this call, but looking for others’ opinion.

Thanks FootClan!

X


#2

I would lean Watson as I think he could be a top 3 qb and I don’t think that Hill can be a top 3-5 WR. It’s unknown how he will mesh with the new QB too. Watson is the pick for me as you can look at his run last week and he has greatness in him for sure.


#3

I’d keep Hill; he’s an explosive weapon that Andy Reid is going to continue to use judiciously. In the 10th, that’s fantastic value.

While I generally like Watson, it’s far easier to replace production at QB than it is at the skill positions. Watson’s going to regress from that pace he set, there’s no question about it, and the Texans don’t throw enough for him to replace the lost efficiency with more volume. He’s not a bad keeper, but in the face of your other options, I’d throw as many skill players on your roster as you can and draft accordingly.


#4

You guys a killing me. It’s like the devil and angel on each shoulder whispering in my ears. You decide who’s who.

I think I am beginning to sway more toward Hill only because I agree with you @DrFantasyBlog I feel I can replace Watson easier than Hill in those rounds. There seems to be high value in WR and I know my league very well (been the same crew for over 10 years). I know at least two who will be going 0RB and hanging on to these WRs will position me well against their strategy.

@foxlvstrng I hate hate hate not keeping Watson because I believe he is a stud and the likelihood is he won’t deliver the pace he was on last year but I also think he has the talent to come very close. I think I will be drafting a stud QB early on just to feel good about this decision.

Thanks so much!

If anyone else has some input I’m glad to hear the arguments, keeper deadline is 8/12 midnight cst.

X


#5

Keeper leagues are always subjective as round penalties skew the values one way or another depending on how one drafts.

I always start by determining who offers the most value in terms of what kind of draft capital it would cost me to reacquire said player.

I project Hill in a keeper league to be a top 20 pick, and I project Watson around 35. In the scenario you’ve provided, the value is basically a wash, so it comes down to preference, that’s why this one may feel so difficult to make. I’d argue that both players are regression candidates - New QB in KC and a return from a major injury for Watson add question marks.

For me, Hill has fewer question marks; but you’re not ruining your team by keeping Watson. If you’re convinced he’s a top 3 QB, then there’s no shame in securing a top 3 player regardless of who you have to throw back to get him.


#6

Hill all the way, great value for a big play guy tied to a big armed QB. Plus Watson and other QBs are a dime a dozen.


#7

I think to call Watson part of the “dime a dozen” group of QB’s is a bit disingenuous; while I agree it’s easier to replace points at the QB position with guys in the middle rounds, that’s not to say that I think Watson belongs in the middle rounds.


#8

He was fire for a few games, but as we’ve seen time and time again, it’s not sustainable unless you prove it year after year. Ala Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Peyton, etc. QBs have blown up and then failed the following year many many times. Cam, Vick, Ryan, to name a few.


#9

While I generally agree with your statement, your examples are just not accurate… Newton has been a top 5 fantasy QB several times - his worst season was 2016 and he still averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game…

And Ryan was QB15 last year, a down year for sure, but he’d thrown 4,500 yards or more for 5 straight seasons prior, and had 4 seasons in that stretch with 26+ TDs. Just because he was OVER drafted last year doesn’t mean he’s not been consistently a QB1 for the bulk of his career.

And Vick went to jail so that doesn’t count.

The point is, I can draft Matt Ryan in the 9th round of a 12 team league and only have about 3 points per week difference from the QB5, yet the drop off from Hill to say… Kelvin Benjamin (similar ADP) is nearly 8 points per start…


#10

I’m confused why you are arguing with me? Despite the “value” of Watson in the 12th I’m stating that he’s simply being drafted high at this point, and when all is said and done he won’t score much differently than the QBs you can get in round 12, as you have laid out. And for someone like Ryan, he finished as the top QB and then dropped to 15 which means he wasn’t a QB1. He may average QB 9 or something but you can get him and a plethora of others in round 12.

Hill is the only logical option as the 3rd pick in this scenario. Watson doesn’t even fall within the same universe.


#11

Also I’m talking about when Vick was with the eagles and some people were taking him as the number 1 overall pick. Not the jail scenario


#12

Just a healthy debate; the more conversation we have the more informed we are when it’s time to draft.

I guess my point was that I don’t believe Watson falls flat this year, I just don’t think his production will be as otherworldly as it was last year. Even if he finishes as the QB5 (which is fantastic value at his keeper price), I like Hill’s value more.

That much we can agree on.


#13

Amen to that